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The term is generally used by financial, technical [professionals] and project managers to describe a solid assumption of a numeric target. It is far more than a guess or even a good guess. One is attempting to accurately estimate a number associated with for example a budget or time requirement using the available limited data or in the worse case no data. If the [individual] offering the SWAG projection is well [recognized] and qualified in his area of expertise and he is offering it within that expertise, the likelihood that the SWAG will be taken seriously is high, especially if he has a proven track record. Someone when challenged on where he came up with his numbers says "well its a SWAG" and he lacks the credentials to support it, is not likely to be taken seriously. In other word, some people use SWAG as a casual term instead of saying I guess.
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