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The theory, central to Taleb's work, that rare, high-impact, unpredictable events—Black Swans—shape history far more than ordinary, predictable events. A Black Swan has three characteristics: it is unpredictable (no one sees it coming), it has massive impact (it changes everything), and [after the fact], we concoct explanations that make it seem predictable (hindsight bias). The theory argues that we are blind to Black Swans because we focus on what we know, on the predictable, on the bell curve—while history is made by what we don't know, by the unpredictable, by the outliers. The [financial crisis] of 2008 was a Black Swan: unpredicted by most models, [catastrophic] in impact, and afterward explained by experts who claimed they'd seen it coming. Black Swan Theory is the foundation of a worldview that expects the unexpected and builds systems that can survive it.
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