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Back in the day, before there had been a Polish Pope, back when no one thought there would ever be anything other than an Italian Pope, people used to say this ironically, that is, as a way to say "no way, not in a thousand years!" Now it can be used to indicate something that was thought to be improbable but that actually happened. Another old one was "does a wild bear shit in the woods?" which led to "Does the Pope shit in the woods"
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