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Old folks from the country, generally in the south, use to say on nights where there was mist/fog over a swamp, pond, river or lake that the devil was raising hell under [water]. The saying "there is going to be smoke on the [water] tonight" came from that and means [something] is about to go down or someone is getting ready to raise hell. The saying predates the rock song by deep purples but I doubt they intended that meaning in their song. I believe their song is about a fire at a hotel.
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